Estonian Exports Down Y-o-Y To May 2012, Nevertheless Growing

A recent report on the Estonian Statistics Office site has stated that May 2012 saw a decrease in exports y-o-y of some eight per cent at current prices.

This needs to be seen in the context of May 2011’s figures being at a record high however, according to the report.

Meanwhile, imports remained steady and thus there was a much larger trade deficit (five times higher – at 113 million Euros) than in May 2011. In all, Estonian imports in May 2012 came to 1.1 billion Euros and exports at 1 billion Euros.

Nonetheless the general month by month trend has been for an increase in exports, which have increased every month since the end of 2011, with the exception of April (imports have followed the same pattern), the report stated.

This is particularly relevant since much of Estonia’s economic recovery has been export-driven.

As regards export sectors, machinery and equipment accounted for the largest share (30 per cent) and also saw a y-o-y increase in exports of 11 per cent. Mineral fuels had the next highest share of the export pie at 12% and metals and metal products taking 10 per cent of the share, according to the statistics. Nonetheless mineral fuels saw a contraction export in May 2012 when compared wih May 2011 (of 52 per cent) and it is this phenomenon primarily which accounts for the y-o-y decrease in total exports.

Machinery and equipment constituted the largest share of imports (28%), followed by mineral fuels (15%) and agricultural products and food preparations (10%). As with exports, mineral fuels also saw a y-o-y decline in May 2012, of 17 per cent. Machinery and equipment saw a y-o-y increase however (5 per cent) and chemical industry raw materials and bi-products saw a 13 per cent y-o-y rise in imports, the report stated.

The most important destinations for Estonian exports were Finland and Sweden at 16 per cent of exports each, and Russia at 12 per cent, according to the report.

Estonia’s main trading partners for imports remained Finland at 14 per cent primarily for electrical equipment and fuels, Russia (fuels, timber and timber products, and an 11 per cent share of imports) and Germany (transport equipment and electrcial equipment – also accounting for 11 per cent of all imports), the report stated.

The original report (in English) with a breakdown of sectors and main trading partners is here.

 

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“Why You Should Be Investing In Tallinn Real Estate – Your Essential Guide to the Tallinn Property Market”: Available Soon!

We haven’t forgotten about our promise to launch the new Guide “”Why You Should Be Investing In Tallinn Real Estate – Your Essential Guide to the Tallinn Property Market”: Available Soon!”.

Our team are putting the finishing touches to the publication and it will be out very soon so watch this space!.

Goodson & Red Tallinn Property Consultancy is a premier residential and commercial property service based in Tallinn, Estonia, with a strong focus on consultancy services for overseas property investors. Our recent media accolades include mentions in both the UK quality newspaper the Daily Telegraph, and the New York Times.

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Increase Of 409 In Supply Of Houses In Estonia Y-o-Y

According to a post by Tõnu Toompark on his adaur blog, the supply of houses on the real estate market in Estonia has increased by 409 y-o-y.

The Estonian real estate market in general, including Tallinn, is overwhelmingly apartment driven. For example as of 17.00 on 23rd July, 2012 there were 14 014 apartments listed in real estate portal kv.ee as being on sale in Estonia, as compared with 7 645 houses (these figures do not take into account items which are listed by multiple agents however, so the real figure is likely to be somewhat lower – see below for an accurate figure for number of houses on the market in June 2012).

Figures for rentals paint an even greater disparity, with a mere 57 houses for rent listed on kv.ee for the whole of Estonia as compared with 1 598 apartments.

Moreover the kv.ee index* has fallen by 0.66 month on month to 60.7, a y-o-y fall of 0.98 per cent, writes Tõnu.

Tõnu goes on to point out that substantial changes in the index are rare, as has been witnessed over the last couple of years, the result being that sellers (vendors) are not seeing their expectations raised so far as asking prices** are concerned.

That said, there have been increases in transaction prices, which has led to a somewhat active market over the last few quarters, Tõnu goes on.

Turning to house (as opposed to apartment) prices specifically, Tõnu notes that asking prices as a whole in Estonia have remained at the level they were a year ago. In the key counties (Maakond) of Harjumaa (where Tallinn is located) Tartumaa and Pärnumaa, there have been increases in asking prices of two, six and one per cent respectively.

On the other hand, eight counties have seen a decrease in asking prices, Tõnu continues.

In any case the supply of houses on the market has increased in all but two counties (Viljandimaa and Lääne-Virumaa which have seen a 24 per cent and six per cent fall respectively).

As a result the number of houses on the market throughout Estonia increased by 409, or eight per cent, y-o-y to June 2012, when kv.ee listed 5 654 houses for sale.

The original article (in Estonian) including figures for number of houses on the market and asking prices, plus y-o-y changes, for each of the  15 counties in Estonia, is here (incidentally there doesn’t appear to be a strong correlation between changes in supply of houses on the market and changes in asking price; in other words areas where there have been increases in the volume of houses on the market haven’t necessarily seen a reduction in asking prices and vice versa, though in some areas they have; other factors seem to be at play in determining prices as well as classical supply and demand).

*The KV.ee index, which commenced on 18th February, 2008 (i.e. this is the date on which the value of the index is calibrated at 100) measures the week on week change in residential real estate prices in Estonia. The data has been measured back anachronistically to 1 January, 2005, when the index stood at an “all time” low of 49.9. The “all time” high came on 7th May, 2007, when it stood at 108. Following the economic downturn of 2008 onwards, the index reached a low point (to date) of 61.4 on two occasions, on 5th September and 27th October, 2010.

**Please see our recent article on the translation of the Estonian words ‘pakkumine’ and ‘pakkumushind’.

 

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Retail Sales In Estonia See An 8 Per Cent Y-o-Y Rise In May 2012

Estonian real estate sales rose by eight per cent y-o-y in May 2012 according to a report on the Baltic Business News website.

The biggest reported rise came in the pharmaceuticals sector, which saw a 13 per cent y-o-y rise, though this was due to the lower reference base from the previous year, the report stated.

Sales of manufactured goods rose by eight per cent over the same period, whilst  non-specialized stores selling predominantly industrial goods together with stores selling textiles, clothing and footwear saw a sales increase of 12 percent year-on-year over the same period, according to the report.

That said, the seasonally adjusted figures saw no increase on a monthly (as opposed to y-o-y) basis, though there was an increae of seven per cent when unadjusted, according to the report.

For the period January-May 2012, there was a nine per cent y-o-y increase, the report stated.

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Fuel Prices In Estonia At An 18 Month Low – But Will This Continue?

The recent fall in fuel prices in Estonia looks set to peter out, according to a report on the Estonian Press Digest from News2Biz.

Naturally prices at the pumps follow the world oil price, which has fallen from 125 USD (Brent Crude) in March to 90 USD at present, the lowest level for the last 18 months, the report stated.

Statoil, the Norwegian majority state-owned petroleum company which has a network of fuel stations all over Estonia, has seen an 8.9 per cent fall in petrol prices y-o-y and a 10.3 per cent fall in the price of diesel over the same period.

The belief that the fall will halt is not universally shared by analysts, however. According to Raimo Vahtrik from Statoil Fuel & Retail Eesti as reported in the article, some analysts believe that oversupply will continue to cause a fall in prices whereas others see an increase on the back of Chinese and US growth and a solution to the Euro zone woes. Moreover, a rise in consumption of diesel (demand for which is derived to a large extent from commercial users) has been seen, and may be seen in the case of petrol if the prices do in fact fall, Mr. Vahtrik was quoted in the report.

Conversely Anti Moppel, marketing manager of Olerex, an Estonian chain of petrol stations, with 46 both manned and unmanned facilities throughout the country, was reported as saying that continuing low demand and sufficient supply will ensure that prices continue to remain low for the meantime. Other factors contributing to this were, he believed, the continuing global economic slump, tensions in Iran and the arrival of the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico.

At the time of writing, 95 petrol was 1.335 Euros/litre at our local Olerex station on Ahtri, whilst it was 1.295 Euros/litre at the Statoil just round the corner on Põhja Pst. 98 petrol cost 1.375 Euros/litre at Olerex and 1.335 Euros/litre at Statoil, whilst diesel stood at 1.295 Euros/litre at Olerex and 1.275 Euros/litre at Statoil

Goodson & Red Tallinn Property Consultancy is a premier residential and commercial property service based in Tallinn, Estonia, with a strong focus on consultancy services for overseas property investors. Our recent media accolades include mentions in both the UK quality newspaper the Daily Telegraph, and the New York Times.

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Apartment Prices Showing Slight Y-o-Y Rise in Tallinn, Estonia

Most of the major newspapers in Tallinn are taking a break today after Jaanipäev but here at Tallinn Property we don’t want to take a break from bringing you up to speed on all that is happening in real estate in Tallinn and Estonia in general!

According to a report on Tõnu Toompark’s adaur blog, signs of very slight price increases in property prices in Tallinn and Estonia as a whole can be gleaned from the latest kv.ee index. The kv.ee index currently stands at 61 points which is all of a 0.5 per cent y-o-y increase. Offer prices statistics for both Tallinn and some of the provincial towns show more concrete evidence of modest increases.

Meanwhile the volume of apartment offers remains at about the same level it was a year ago, though in Tallinn the level is about one per cent lower with 8 700 apartments currently under offer, writes Tõnu.  Average offer prices for the whole of Tallinn (apartments) currently stands at 1 317 Euros/square metre.

That said, agents have shown some optimisim in reporting a slight rise in offer prices on Tallinn flats, Tõnu continues. At the same time it needs to be pointed out that offer price rises remain below the growth in actual deal prices. Whereas the offer price on Tallinn apartments has seen a five per cent rise y-o-y, actual deal prices have seen a seven per cent rise over the same period, Tõnu says.

According to the data, within Tallinn, the district to have seen the highest rise in offer prices is Kristiine with an eight per cent increase from 9 May, 2011 to 9 May, 2012 (average price of 1 316 Euros/square metre). The Old Town actually saw a decrease of one per cent in offer prices over the same period (average price of 2 792 Euros/square metre). The greatest increase in volume of offers over the same period was in North Tallinn with an increase of 13 per cent (to 1 418 offers) though many areas saw a fall y-o-y, as high as -18 per cent in Pirita (278 offers). Outside of Tallinn, Tartu has also seen a fall in the volume of offers (-22 per cent) whilst simultaneously experiencing an increase in offer prices of eight per cent (average of 1 051 Euros/square metre).

Estonia as a whole has seen only small increases in both number of apartment offers at two per cent (18 511 currently) and an increase in average offer prices of three per cent (1 004 Euros/square metre).

The full article and statistics (in Estonian) can be viewed here.

The kv.ee index, which commenced on 18 February, 2008 (i.e. this is the date on which the value of the index is calibrated at 100) measures the week on week change in residential real estate prices in Estonia. The data has been measured back anachronistically to 1 January, 2005, when the index stood at an “all time” low of 49.9. The “all time” high came on 7 May, 2007, when it stood at 108.

Goodson & Red Tallinn Property Consultancy is a premier residential and commercial property service based in Tallinn, Estonia, with a strong focus on consultancy services for overseas property investors. Our recent media accolades include mentions in both the UK quality newspaper the Daily Telegraph, and the New York Times.

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London Taxi Company Aims to Expand to Tallinn

According to a report on site of the Estonian state broadcaster ERR, the London Taxi Company is looking to expand its operations to Tallinn.

Famed for its iconic black cabs, the company is looking both to supply vehicles and training for drivers in the capital.

This approach has apparently already worked well in Baku, Azerbaijan, host of the recent Eurovision song contest finals, and has helped to raise standards and combat pirate taxi services.

The company has expanded in other regions such as the middle east, including Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

Goodson & Red Tallinn Property Consultancy has more than eight years’ experience in comprehensive property brokerage and consultancy services for investors and sellers, long and short term lettings services and a comprehensive professional management service for landlords, and has recently been cited in UK quality newspaper the Daily Telegraph, and the New York Times.

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Q1 2012: Estonia Sees House Price Increase Y-o-Y Whilst Global Trend Is For Fall

According to property investment portal, Global Property Guide, whilst the global trend for house prices has been for an accelerating downturn as of Q1 2012, Estonia has been bucking that trend somewhat, even seeing something of an increase, at least as regards the y-o-y figure.

The Global Property Guide (GPG) stated that, of the 36 countries for which quarterly statistics are available, only 12 saw a y-o-y rise to Q1 2012. When looking at Q1 statistics compared with Q4 2011, the picture is even more stark, with only 10 counties seeing a rise in prices, and 26 seeing a fall, over that period.

These figures regard inflation-adjusted prices; nominal price statistics paint a rosier picture, with 20 countries seeing a y-o-y rise in prices.

Notable inflation-adjusted y-o-y price drops have been seen in Ireland (-18.9 per cent), Greece (-11.68 per cent), Poland (-10.94 per cent) and Portugal (-10.45 per cent), with Spain seeing a drop of -9 per cent y-o-y in line with that country’s economic woes.

Conversely, according to GPG, Estonia saw a rise in prices y-o-y to Q1 2012, of 9.13 per cent, the highest of any European country. Of the countries polled, only India, or more specifically Delhi at 24.41 per cent, and Brazil (São Paulo) at 18.70 per cent, saw a greater rise over the same period, though it has to be said that these increases were quite substantially higher than Estonia’s.

As regards the quarterly change, growth was much more sluggish as noted, and Estonia actually saw fall of -0.41 per cent as compared with Q1 2011, according to the GPG data.

Other countries to see significant y-o-y growth were Austria (8.24 per cent) Switzerland (5.49 per cent), Norway (5.43 per cent), Russia (3.86 per cent) and Iceland (2.25 per cent). Of these, Austria, Switzerland and Norway didn’t experience a house price slump in the first place, whereas Estonia, Russia and Iceland are seeing recovery.

The full report is available here.

Goodson & Red Tallinn Property Consultancy has more than eight years’ experience in comprehensive property brokerage and consultancy services for investors and sellers, long and short term lettings services and a comprehensive professional management service for landlords, and has recently been cited in UK quality newspaper the Daily Telegraph, and the New York Times.

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Credit Rating Agency Fitch Confirms Estonia at A+

Credit ratings agency Fitch has confirmed its rating for Estonia at A+, according to a recent report on the Estonian state broadcaster ERR’s English-language website.

Particularly noteworthy in Fitch’s estimation, was the accession to the Eurozone in January 2011 and Estonia’s balanced approach to economic recovery.

Whilst not ignoring the challenging issues (e.g. sensitivity to the surrounding economic environment and the relatively low quality of life for many Estonians) Fitch went on to state that Estonia was less vulnerable to the external economic situation than had been the case in 2008-2009, due largely to increased competitiveness.

As a comparison Fitch rates Finland at AAA, Lithuania and Latvia at BBB and BBB- respectively and Russia at BBB.

Goodson & Red Tallinn Property Consultancy has more than eight years’ experience in comprehensive property brokerage and consultancy services for investors and sellers, long and short term lettings services and a comprehensive professional management service for landlords, and has recently been cited in UK quality newspaper the Daily Telegraph, and the New York Times.

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GDP in Estonia up 3.9 per cent year on year to Q1 2012

According to a report on the Baltic Business News, the Estonian economy saw a growth of 3.9 per cent in Q1 of 2012, with particular emphasis on construction and also retail and wholesale trade.

Citing figures from the Estonian Statistics Office, these two sectors accounted for more than half of the total growth during Q1. In the case of construction, the upturn resulted partly from an increase in renovations and refurbishments, especially in the public sector which benefitted from state sales of Estonia’s excess CO2 quota; rising food sales were largely behind the retail growth.

Conversely, industrial production, previously a driving force behind recovery actually saw something of a decline over the same period, with the biggest drops seen in electronics and metals. Energy production also saw a downturn on the domestic front, partly due to milder weather in Q1 than can be the case for the time of year, and exports fell, which in turn impacted on manufacturing.

Neighbouring Latvia and Lithuania have seen much more rapid growth rates over the same period, at 6.8 per cent and 4.3 per cent y-o-y respectively.

The original article from the Estonian Statistics Office is available here.

Goodson & Red Tallinn Property Consultancy is dedicated to delivering premier residential and commercial property services in Tallinn and Estonia. Through more than 8 years of consistency in one of the most active property markets in Eastern Europe we have developed an enviable reputation for our in-depth market knowledge and expert, considerate personal service. Our services include comprehensive property brokerage services for sellers, home search, long and short term lettings services and a comprehensive professional management service for landlords.

We also offer foreign buyers consultancy to help investors diversify their portfolio, together with a development consultancy service, providing effective marketing and branding for developers. Our recent media accolades include mentions (twice) in the UK quality newspaper the Daily Telegraph, and the New York Times.

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