Q1 2012: Estonia Sees House Price Increase Y-o-Y Whilst Global Trend Is For Fall

According to property investment portal, Global Property Guide, whilst the global trend for house prices has been for an accelerating downturn as of Q1 2012, Estonia has been bucking that trend somewhat, even seeing something of an increase, at least as regards the y-o-y figure.

The Global Property Guide (GPG) stated that, of the 36 countries for which quarterly statistics are available, only 12 saw a y-o-y rise to Q1 2012. When looking at Q1 statistics compared with Q4 2011, the picture is even more stark, with only 10 counties seeing a rise in prices, and 26 seeing a fall, over that period.

These figures regard inflation-adjusted prices; nominal price statistics paint a rosier picture, with 20 countries seeing a y-o-y rise in prices.

Notable inflation-adjusted y-o-y price drops have been seen in Ireland (-18.9 per cent), Greece (-11.68 per cent), Poland (-10.94 per cent) and Portugal (-10.45 per cent), with Spain seeing a drop of -9 per cent y-o-y in line with that country’s economic woes.

Conversely, according to GPG, Estonia saw a rise in prices y-o-y to Q1 2012, of 9.13 per cent, the highest of any European country. Of the countries polled, only India, or more specifically Delhi at 24.41 per cent, and Brazil (São Paulo) at 18.70 per cent, saw a greater rise over the same period, though it has to be said that these increases were quite substantially higher than Estonia’s.

As regards the quarterly change, growth was much more sluggish as noted, and Estonia actually saw fall of -0.41 per cent as compared with Q1 2011, according to the GPG data.

Other countries to see significant y-o-y growth were Austria (8.24 per cent) Switzerland (5.49 per cent), Norway (5.43 per cent), Russia (3.86 per cent) and Iceland (2.25 per cent). Of these, Austria, Switzerland and Norway didn’t experience a house price slump in the first place, whereas Estonia, Russia and Iceland are seeing recovery.

The full report is available here.

Goodson & Red Tallinn Property Consultancy has more than eight years’ experience in comprehensive property brokerage and consultancy services for investors and sellers, long and short term lettings services and a comprehensive professional management service for landlords, and has recently been cited in UK quality newspaper the Daily Telegraph, and the New York Times.

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Estonian Property Prices Rising Despite Most Countries Seeing A Fall

According to a recent  global property report from prestigious real estate company Knight Frank, whilst the general global trend for house prices is for a continuing  fall, Estonia is bucking this trend and seeing rising prices.

Written by Kate Everett-Allen, the report referred to Knight Frank’s own Global House Price Index (GHPI), where Estonia saw the second highest property price rise in the world y-o-y between December 2010 and December 2011 with a 12.3 per cent GHPI rise (only Brazil was higher) and, whilst more recent rises have been more modest, it is still well ahead of many countries, and much of Europe in particular.

The 6 month GHPI figure stood at 4.4 per cent rise (only Germany was higher at 5 per cent, and Ireland saw a drop of -9 per cent over the same period) and the 3 month period GHPI stood at 1.1 per cent (compared with – 1.1 per cent for the UK).

Whilst the slowdown in China and other Asian countries, not to mention North America, has had its effect on the index, Europe stands as the worst affected region with all 12 bottom spots being occupied by European countries, which makes the Estonian ‘blip’ all the more surprising. In addition to Germany, the only other European countries to have seen an increase are Iceland, Norway and Switzerland; naturally the continuing Eurozone crisis has taken its toll.

60 per cent of countries polled saw a drop in prices over the final quarter of 2011. In addition to the Eurozone crisis and other global economic uncertainty, the report also cited stricter mortgage lending requirements and falling consumer confidence.

“If ..[the] .. trend spreads to more locations, the overall GHPI could easily slip into negative territory during 2012, especially if the slowdown in Asia continues”, the report stated.

Knight Frank is a truly global, high quality commercial and residential real estate agent with a presence in 43 countries worldwide. The original report is available here.

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