According to a post by Tõnu Toompark on his adaur blog, the supply of houses on the real estate market in Estonia has increased by 409 y-o-y.
The Estonian real estate market in general, including Tallinn, is overwhelmingly apartment driven. For example as of 17.00 on 23rd July, 2012 there were 14 014 apartments listed in real estate portal kv.ee as being on sale in Estonia, as compared with 7 645 houses (these figures do not take into account items which are listed by multiple agents however, so the real figure is likely to be somewhat lower – see below for an accurate figure for number of houses on the market in June 2012).
Figures for rentals paint an even greater disparity, with a mere 57 houses for rent listed on kv.ee for the whole of Estonia as compared with 1 598 apartments.
Moreover the kv.ee index* has fallen by 0.66 month on month to 60.7, a y-o-y fall of 0.98 per cent, writes Tõnu.
Tõnu goes on to point out that substantial changes in the index are rare, as has been witnessed over the last couple of years, the result being that sellers (vendors) are not seeing their expectations raised so far as asking prices** are concerned.
That said, there have been increases in transaction prices, which has led to a somewhat active market over the last few quarters, Tõnu goes on.
Turning to house (as opposed to apartment) prices specifically, Tõnu notes that asking prices as a whole in Estonia have remained at the level they were a year ago. In the key counties (Maakond) of Harjumaa (where Tallinn is located) Tartumaa and Pärnumaa, there have been increases in asking prices of two, six and one per cent respectively.
On the other hand, eight counties have seen a decrease in asking prices, Tõnu continues.
In any case the supply of houses on the market has increased in all but two counties (Viljandimaa and Lääne-Virumaa which have seen a 24 per cent and six per cent fall respectively).
As a result the number of houses on the market throughout Estonia increased by 409, or eight per cent, y-o-y to June 2012, when kv.ee listed 5 654 houses for sale.
The original article (in Estonian) including figures for number of houses on the market and asking prices, plus y-o-y changes, for each of the 15 counties in Estonia, is here (incidentally there doesn’t appear to be a strong correlation between changes in supply of houses on the market and changes in asking price; in other words areas where there have been increases in the volume of houses on the market haven’t necessarily seen a reduction in asking prices and vice versa, though in some areas they have; other factors seem to be at play in determining prices as well as classical supply and demand).
*The KV.ee index, which commenced on 18th February, 2008 (i.e. this is the date on which the value of the index is calibrated at 100) measures the week on week change in residential real estate prices in Estonia. The data has been measured back anachronistically to 1 January, 2005, when the index stood at an “all time” low of 49.9. The “all time” high came on 7th May, 2007, when it stood at 108. Following the economic downturn of 2008 onwards, the index reached a low point (to date) of 61.4 on two occasions, on 5th September and 27th October, 2010.
**Please see our recent article on the translation of the Estonian words ‘pakkumine’ and ‘pakkumushind’.